Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.018556 0.021063 0.023792 0.026985 0.030620 0.034631 0.039398
2025-03-30 0.013992 0.017273 0.021160 0.026112 0.032263 0.039667 0.049275
2025-04-06 0.011658 0.015231 0.019714 0.025765 0.033741 0.043928 0.057974
2025-04-13 0.009781 0.013379 0.018109 0.024801 0.034061 0.046475 0.064469
2025-04-20 0.008953 0.012748 0.017945 0.025609 0.036677 0.052164 0.075624
2025-04-27 0.008237 0.012157 0.017722 0.026240 0.039021 0.057606 0.086903
2025-05-04 0.007685 0.011720 0.017642 0.027018 0.041590 0.063543 0.099439
2025-05-11 0.006965 0.010943 0.016961 0.026789 0.042564 0.067110 0.108621
2025-05-18 0.006408 0.010351 0.016490 0.026811 0.043884 0.071274 0.119089
2025-05-25 0.005835 0.009675 0.015811 0.026413 0.044453 0.074234 0.127796
2025-06-01 0.005489 0.009330 0.015629 0.026798 0.046330 0.079476 0.140833
2025-06-08 0.005072 0.008826 0.015130 0.026587 0.047144 0.082950 0.151061
2025-06-15 0.004863 0.008670 0.015221 0.027434 0.049937 0.090203 0.168994
2025-06-22 0.004403 0.008028 0.014412 0.026599 0.049619 0.091863 0.176747
2025-06-29 0.004066 0.007576 0.013896 0.026242 0.050131 0.095055 0.187681
2025-07-06 0.003677 0.006993 0.013090 0.025260 0.049349 0.095713 0.193666
2025-07-13 0.003562 0.006918 0.013221 0.026084 0.052146 0.103511 0.214787
2025-07-20 0.003433 0.006801 0.013260 0.026727 0.054631 0.110905 0.235807
2025-07-27 0.003329 0.006726 0.013371 0.027519 0.057487 0.119294 0.259778
2025-08-03 0.003121 0.006422 0.013001 0.027286 0.058174 0.123236 0.274462
2025-08-10 0.002956 0.006193 0.012764 0.027309 0.059400 0.128416 0.292408
2025-08-17 0.002762 0.005888 0.012345 0.026903 0.059652 0.131498 0.305863
2025-08-24 0.002658 0.005763 0.012295 0.027295 0.061708 0.138740 0.329741